So it’s time for probably the most useless article on this blog ))) It’s been more than two months since the last article, and I can’t get my … stuff together to write another one. Why everyone is falling for the AI pitch? Let’s vent a little for a change.
Everyone is a Celebrity
Today’s online space is full of videos of all shapes and sizes. A blogging career is just around the corner. Post some great stuff, gather subscribers, monetize — ezpz.
It wasn’t like that long ago, though. Getting in front of a massive audience was kind of a privilege. The doors were closed to most of the population.
I believe the key drivers of this transformation are:
- Mobile — video-capturing devices connected to the internet became widely available
- Cloud — massive scalability of web services became possible
- Free time — that requires more than just a bullet point
A few hundred years ago, most people were peasants working in the fields. No offense, it’s just a matter of fact — we needed that much manual labor to survive.
Go out and take a look around these days. Most people now are far removed from the hard work of our ancestors. We are able to survive on a fraction of the labor that was required a few centuries ago.
But boredom is hard to tolerate, and dealing with it productively is hard too. Hence, there is a huge market for alleviating boredom, so hopefully that all fits together now.
Bottom line? Presenting yourself to people is perceived as valuable, even if the thing in question is crap.
Presentation is Everything
What separates a scam from the real deal when it comes to startups? It’s much less obvious than one might think. Entrepreneurs acting in good faith fail miserably because their business model doesn’t click at the end of the day. Meanwhile, bozos run their shitshows for a long time while appearing to be serious businessmen.
There’s clearly a trend in VC to value long-term market-capturing strategies more than business models that work from day one. That kind of makes sense when your pockets are deep. If you can burn cash longer than others, that’s your competitive advantage.
Fake it till you make it. Or just keep faking it while providing just enough value to keep expectations warm. Who knows if you’re brewing another electric-lamp revolution?
Bottom line? Perceived value matters more than actual value. People are less and less capable of deciding for themselves anyway.
AI Hype is More About People Than Technology
You may wonder what all that previous stuff has to do with AI. Watch me.
For most people, technology is magic, per Arthur C. Clarke’s third law. Humanity at large believes AGI is possible simply by scaling LLMs. They talk to LLMs like they have a soul.
LLMs are indeed impressive and capable. At the same time, they are nothing more than probabilistic ML models. They are resource-hungry and unsustainable, with huge room for improvement.
AI hype is the perfect storm. Give people who are already lazy and dependent a way to increase their slack. That will drain whatever skills and critical thinking they have left. Eventually, they will believe any presentation you throw at them. “Why everyone is falling for the AI pitch?” won’t be a question down the line at all.
So what?
Where is it all going? Dunno, I’m not a prophet. There are too many moving pieces in the air at once.
One thing is for sure, though:
- Keeping one’s mind sharp will require much more discipline than before
- The opportunity space has exploded, but it contains more dead ends than eve
- LLMs amplify whatever you do in software engineering
The last bullet leads to an interesting conclusion. Most enterprise landscapes are messy crap that barely holds together. It seems we should anticipate more shitshows down the road.